Thursday, November 24 2022

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“Even though the rise in unemployment was stronger than consensus forecasts, there was also evidence that companies tried to keep staff on the payroll during the Omicron wave due to expectations that lockdown measures would be short-lived, and also due to the difficulties in recruiting staff in the previous phases of reopening, ”said Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC.

Most industries saw job numbers rise last month, with construction and natural resources fueling an additional 23,000 jobs in the goods-producing sector alone.

Royce Mendes, managing director of economics at Desjardins, said that with Omicron cases likely past their peak and the most stringent pandemic measures lifted, “this is the start of a recipe for another rapid rebound from the COVID wave” despite the “carnage” in January.

These ingredients also mean that central bankers are “still on track” to raise rates in March as they seek to head off further inflation, he added.

The Bank of Canada kept its key interest rate unchanged last month at 0.25%, but signaled that it was preparing to start raising its key rate in a bid to control inflation and return to its 2% target.

The annual inflation rate rose to 4.8% in December, its highest pace since September 1991, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the rate could remain “uncomfortably high” around 5% in the first half of 2022.

The central bank’s next interest rate decision is set for March 2.

Recent history can be a guide to employment numbers in the months ahead.

The wave of job losses when COVID-19 cases spiked in January 2021 was followed by a bigger rebound of 272,500 in February last year. The economy lost 198,800 jobs last April – followed by a slight decline in May – but rebounded with 214,600 gains in June.

“The Canadian labor market has shown an impressive ability to rebound from previous waves last year, and some of the conditions that contributed to the recovery, such as employers’ high appetite for hiring, remain,” said Brendon Bernard, senior economist at job posting site Indeed. in an email.

Total hours worked in the economy fell back below its pre-pandemic level last month, plunging 2.2% – the biggest drop since April.

The average hourly wage rose 2.4% year over year, Mendes noted, despite labor shortages in industries ranging from information technology to trucking.

More than 40% of employees worked primarily from home in January, which is higher than one in four who have done so in recent months, Statistics Canada said.

The total number of unemployed jumped by 106,000, or 8.6% month-on-month, to 1.34 million in January.

This report from The Canadian Press was first published on February 4, 2022.

Christopher Reynolds, The Canadian Press

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